US rail traffic climbs 3.5% as intermodal leads weekly gains, AAR says

US rail traffic rose 3.5% in the week ending Oct. 31 against the same week a year earlier, the Association of American Railroads reported Wednesday. Intermodal did the pulling: container and trailer volume gained 3.9%, ahead of a 3.0% rise in carload traffic.

The weekly number matters less than what sits underneath it. Seven of the 10 carload commodity groups posted year-over-year gains, and the leaders tell you where freight demand is firming.

Which commodity groups moved the market?

Metallic ores and metals led all categories, up 18.3% for the week. Forest products followed at 9.3%, with motor vehicles and parts close behind at 9.1%. Chemicals rose 7.9%, and farm products excluding grain and food gained 6.9%.

Two smaller gainers rounded out the positive side: petroleum and petroleum products added 2.5%, and nonmetallic minerals edged up 1.1%.

The decliners were concentrated in three groups. Miscellaneous carloads fell hardest, down 12.2%. Grain traffic dropped 8.3% for the week. Coal slipped 0.4%.

That grain figure needs context, because the weekly number cuts against the annual trend.

What does the year-to-date picture show?

Through the first 43 weeks of 2026, total US rail traffic is up 3.8% from the same period in 2025. Intermodal again outpaced carloads, gaining 4.7% against a 2.7% carload increase — a spread that's held through most of the year and signals continued strength in consumer and logistics-driven volumes moving in boxes rather than hoppers.

Grain remains the strongest year-to-date carload category despite its weekly dip, up 10.1% since the start of the year. Metallic ores and metals have gained 8.9%, and petroleum and petroleum products are 7.9% ahead of their year-earlier level.

Coal is the outlier. It's the only carload category running below last year, down 1.6% year-to-date — a slow structural decline that a single soft week for grain doesn't match.

How does North America as a whole compare?

The AAR also tracks nine reporting railroads across the US, Canada and Mexico. Their combined weekly traffic rose 4.3% from the same week last year — a faster pace than the US-only figure. North American carloads gained 3.9% and intermodal traffic climbed 4.7%.

Through 43 weeks, combined North American traffic is up 3.3%, a touch below the US number, which means the cross-border networks are growing slightly more slowly than the domestic ones over the full year even as they outperformed in this particular week.

Why the trend matters

One week doesn't make a market, but this one extends a pattern that's now well established: total US traffic up 3.8% through 43 weeks of 2026, with intermodal consistently leading carload growth. For carriers and shippers alike, the practical read is that box capacity keeps tightening faster than bulk, and coal keeps fading while grain — despite last week's 8.3% drop — remains the year's strongest bulk story.

If the current pace holds through the final nine weeks of 2026, the industry will close the year with its third consecutive growth signal on intermodal, and the grain harvest moves will determine whether the year-to-date 10.1% gain holds or erodes.