The UK government has set a target of increasing rail freight volumes by at least 40% by 2040, according to a report published by RAILMARKET.com.

The figure commits Whitehall to a substantial expansion of goods moved by rail over the next 15 years, reversing a period in which rail freight's share of UK surface transport has come under pressure from road competition and shifting commodity flows. A 40% uplift from current traffic levels would require operators to add capacity, terminals and rolling stock well beyond existing fleet plans.

The target signals ministerial intent to use rail as an instrument of decarbonisation and congestion policy. Rail freight typically produces significantly lower carbon emissions per tonne-kilometre than road haulage, and each freight train can remove dozens of lorries from the strategic road network. Growing volumes by 40% by 2040 would therefore translate into measurable reductions in road traffic and transport-sector emissions, provided the trains run on viable paths and terminals can handle the additional throughput.

Delivery will depend on decisions spread across several actors. Network Rail allocates paths on the congested mixed-traffic network, where freight competes with passenger services that have priority under existing access rules. Freight operating companies — including DB Cargo UK, Freightliner and GB Railfreight — will need commercial confidence to invest in locomotives, wagons and driver training against that horizon. HM Treasury will determine whether capital funding follows the headline ambition, particularly for track enhancements, gauge clearance and terminal capacity on key corridors.

The 2040 deadline aligns with wider UK climate commitments, giving the industry a fixed benchmark against which progress can be measured. Interim milestones, funding envelopes and corridor-level plans were not specified in the report.

Industry observers will now watch for the government's next steps: a published growth strategy, confirmed infrastructure investment, and any changes to track access charging that would make the 40% goal an operational plan rather than an aspiration.