Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates the proposed Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail line could cost up to $113 billion — and that figure excludes a stop at Kingston, according to a CTV News report published on October 1, 2026.

The estimate lands as Ottawa continues to develop the high-speed rail project for the Toronto–Ottawa–Montreal–Quebec City corridor, the most densely populated passenger market in the country. The PBO's costing marks the first independent parliamentary check on the scale of capital the federal government would need to commit if the programme proceeds.

CTV News correspondent Judy Trinh reported the figures. The report, published as a two-minute broadcast segment on October 1, frames the $113 billion ceiling against the corridor's current infrastructure and raises the question of what a Kingston station connection would add on top of it.

What does the estimate cover?

The PBO costing applies to the full Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail alignment. Its headline number is an upper-bound figure — "up to" $113 billion — which signals a range rather than a single point estimate.

One scope exclusion is explicit: the estimate does not include a Kingston stop. That omission matters for corridor planning. Kingston sits on the existing Windsor–Quebec City rail spine between Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, and any decision to serve the city on a dedicated high-speed alignment would add route length, station capital and construction complexity to an already nine-figure programme.

For operators and planners, the gap between the PBO's headline figure and any Kingston-inclusive scope represents an unresolved cost variable in the project's baseline.

Why the number matters now

A parliamentary costing at this scale functions as a fiscal marker ahead of any federal commitment to procurement or construction. The $113 billion ceiling gives parliamentarians and taxpayers a reference point against which subsequent government budget submissions, co-funding proposals and private-partnership structures can be tested.

The estimate also sets an implicit affordability test for the project's business case. Any projected ridership, fare revenue or wider economic benefit must now be weighed against a capital charge of up to $113 billion before a Kingston option is even priced in.

The PBO has not, on the strength of this report, published a lower-bound figure, a per-kilometre costing, or a year-by-year capital profile. Those details — along with the delivery schedule, fleet assumptions and alignment choices that drive high-speed rail costs — remain to be tested as the project definition advances.

What comes next

Expect the costing to fuel scrutiny of the project's scope decisions, starting with whether Kingston is in or out, and what each option does to the federal capital commitment. The $113 billion figure now anchors that debate until the government publishes its own updated programme estimates.