NJ Transit's budget grew 20% over four years while rail reliability declined significantly over the same period, according to a new report from the Garden State Initiative that examined data from 2020 through 2024.

The finding cuts against the most common explanation offered for the commuter railroad's poor on-time performance: disruptions originating on Amtrak-owned infrastructure. Amtrak manages the train signals, tracks and electrical infrastructure on the Northeast Corridor segments that NJ Transit's commuter trains use, and public discussion of NJ Transit's service problems has frequently centered on the host railroad.

The report, authored by Danielle Zanzalari, confirms part of that narrative. Amtrak-related disruptions do affect NJ Transit's on-time performance. But the data also point to a second, distinct problem that sits squarely within NJ Transit's own operations.

"Public discussion often centers on Amtrak, and our research confirms that Amtrak-related disruptions certainly impact on-time performance, but the data also show that NJ Transit faces a separate mechanical reliability challenge that cannot be explained by Amtrak alone," Zanzalari said. "If New Jersey wants a more reliable transit system, policymakers should pair continued infrastructure investment with stronger operational management, better asset planning and clear performance measures."

The distinction matters for how the state allocates remediation spending. If delays traced to Amtrak infrastructure and delays traced to NJ Transit's own mechanical reliability require different fixes — host-railroad investment in one case, fleet and asset management in the other — then treating all unreliability as an Amtrak problem risks directing capital at the wrong constraint.

The 20% budget increase documented over the 2020-2024 study period is the report's central evidence on the spending question. The report concluded that reliability depends on how transportation resources are managed, not simply how much is spent. In other words, the measured result of the period is more money and worse performance, a combination the authors read as a management and accountability gap rather than a funding gap.

The report's policy recommendation follows from that reading: New Jersey should adopt a more performance-based approach to transit investment and accountability, tying resources to defined performance measures rather than to headline budget growth. Noah Kolenda reported on the findings for Mass Transit.

The study arrives amid a broader set of infrastructure changes affecting the corridor NJ Transit depends on. Amtrak reopened New York's East River Tunnel in August 2026, marking the halfway point of rehabilitation work at Penn Station following Superstorm Sandy. The Portal Bridge replacement and the Gateway Hudson tunnels, funded under agreements between New York and New Jersey, remain the headline capacity projects on the corridor.

The Garden State Initiative report suggests those capital programs, while addressing genuine infrastructure constraints, will not by themselves resolve NJ Transit's reliability problem if the agency's internal mechanical performance and asset planning go unaddressed.