Morocco's ONCF plans $10bn rail investment to hit 100 million passengers by 2030

Morocco's National Railway Office (ONCF) plans to spend roughly MAD 96 billion ($10 billion) on its network, aiming to carry about 100 million passengers a year by 2030 and post an operating margin above MAD 5 billion.

The programme, reported by local media, allocates the money across three main blocks:

• MAD 53 billion to extend the high-speed line from Kenitra to Marrakesh;
• MAD 29 billion to acquire 168 new trains;
• MAD 14 billion for regional express trains and maintenance of the existing network.

ONCF is betting on network expansion and rising demand for rail transport to lift ridership and profitability together over the second half of the decade.

What is being built now?

The flagship project is the 430-kilometre Kenitra–Marrakech line, which would carry high-speed services deep into the interior from the Atlantic corridor. Work underway also covers network development in the Casablanca region, a region that concentrates a large share of national ridership.

Three new stations are in the programme: Casablanca South, Mohammed V Airport and Hassan II Stadium. The airport and stadium links position rail as the mass-transit backbone for events tied to Morocco's football calendar, moving spectators and air passengers off the roads.

A further strand of the programme focuses on local train manufacturing. Building trains in Morocco rather than importing them outright would shift part of the MAD 29 billion fleet order into domestic industrial value — a cost and employment outcome the government has pushed across infrastructure sectors.

What does the plan change for the balance sheet?

The financial trajectory published with the programme shows ONCF still in the red in the near term. In 2026, turnover is expected to exceed MAD 5.27 billion, with investments of MAD 18.2 billion and a net deficit of MAD 652 million. Investment then accelerates to more than MAD 29 billion in 2027 — the peak construction year implied by the figures.

In other words, the operator will spend roughly five times its annual turnover on capex in 2026 while absorbing a nine-figure deficit, on the expectation that the completed Kenitra–Marrakech line, the enlarged fleet and the Casablanca-area works convert into the 100-million-passenger, MAD 5-billion-margin target by 2030.

The projection rests on delivery: the 430 km line, 168 trains and three stations must all enter service on schedule for the ridership arithmetic to hold.

Why the 2030 target matters

Doubling down on high-speed rail extends the logic of Morocco's original Tangier–Casablanca line, which cut journey times on the country's busiest corridor and shifted traffic from road and air. The Kenitra–Marrakech extension pushes that model inland to Marrakech, one of the country's principal tourist and economic centres, while the Casablanca-region works densify service in the largest urban market.

If the 2030 ridership and margin figures are met, ONCF would move from a subsidy-absorbing investment phase to an operator generating more than MAD 5 billion a year in operating surplus — money available to service the debt raised for the $10 billion programme.

The next milestones to watch are the 2026 turnover figure against the MAD 5.27 billion forecast, and the pace of the 2027 investment peak as construction on the Kenitra–Marrakech line advances.