European coach and locomotive market to reach €3.4bn, SCI forecasts

Europe's market for intercity passenger coaches and locomotives will reach €3.4bn, according to SCI Verkehr's new study, Intercity and Night Trains European Market Trends 2026. To put that figure in context, the consultancy expects the coach OEM segment alone to settle at roughly €1.5bn per year after 2030 — a level comparable to the annual rolling stock budget of a mid-sized European operator.

The Cologne-based consultancy attributes the expansion to fleet renewal and the introduction of locomotive-hauled trains capable of up to 230 km/h. Yet the headline number warrants scrutiny. SCI itself reports that the flexible passenger coach segment, while still growing, is showing signs of saturation.

'Revenue in the market for flexible passenger coaches is still growing – however, signs of saturation are emerging,' said Alexander Borchers, Managing Director of SCI Verkehr.

What is driving the orders?

New coach procurement remains the principal growth driver. SCI points to several concrete programmes:

• Deutsche Bahn's ICE L fleet
• Talgo 230 trains ordered for FlixTrain
• New Talgo trains for Sweden
• PKP Intercity's passenger coach procurements

The market is splitting into two rolling stock concepts. The first comprises highly integrated, pressure-tight trainsets for speeds up to 230 km/h, including platforms such as Siemens ComfortJet and Talgo 230. The second retains traditionally combinable coaches, generally limited to 200 km/h.

SCI sees further potential in options within existing contracts and planned tenders. Whether that potential becomes firm orders depends on financing availability, manufacturers' production capacity, vehicle approvals and the award of public transport contracts. The consultancy's forecast shows the coach OEM market growing considerably towards the end of the decade before stabilising at around €1.5bn annually — a shift from rapid expansion to a high but plateaued market.

Why does locomotive demand diverge?

Locomotive procurement follows a different pattern. SCI does not expect the coach boom to trigger a corresponding locomotive cycle, for three reasons the study identifies:

• Large programmes in Poland and Czechia are approaching completion
• Operators can lengthen existing train formations instead of buying traction
• Leased locomotives and existing fleet units cover additional coach sets

The caveat is implicit in the data: a strong coach market does not automatically produce a comparable locomotive order cycle.

How important is the second-hand market becoming?

SCI identifies the growing strategic role of the second-hand passenger rolling stock market as one of the most significant structural changes. Supply comes predominantly from Western European operators, with DB Fernverkehr the principal source. Used coaches increasingly move to Central and Eastern Europe and to private operators — SCI names RegioJet, Leo Express and Snälltåget among the buyers.

Used vehicles cut both the cost and the time required to enter a market, and they serve as an interim solution when new deliveries slip. The economics are not straightforward, however. SCI notes that spare parts availability and modernisation costs can erode the advantage of a lower purchase price. Operators must weigh faster availability against the investment needed to extend fleet life.

Can night trains pay their way?

The night train segment shows strong long-term growth prospects alongside substantial barriers. Fleet renewal, rather than new services, is the primary demand driver. Procurement is dominated by programmes receiving government or public support, and SCI estimates that only a relatively small number of routes can operate without subsidies.

Operators also face limited track capacity, overnight infrastructure works and complex vehicle approval procedures. Public interest in overnight rail remains high and is supported by new rolling stock and operating concepts — but SCI observes that this interest has not yet translated into concrete additional orders. The gap between passenger demand and commercial viability remains unbridged.

The combined picture is a more diversified market: new high-speed-capable coaches will continue to drive investment, while second-hand rolling stock serves operators seeking quicker, less capital-intensive expansion — provided financing constraints on new builds persist.