Comptroller: MTA outyear gaps widen to $897M by 2030

New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli's 2026 annual report on Metropolitan Transportation Authority finances projects budget gaps growing from $295 million in 2027 to $897 million in 2030, even though the $21.9 billion 2026 operating budget is balanced. The widening gaps, driven by non-discretionary costs rising faster than revenues, form the core of the report's argument that the MTA needs long-term strategies to control spending it cannot easily cut.

"The MTA's near-term financial outlook remains stable, but that could change in the coming years," DiNapoli said. "Meeting higher savings goals, keeping a tight focus on growing ridership through safe, reliable service and working constructively with labor will help avoid a return to the fiscal instability of years past. New Yorkers need a strong MTA to keep our economy running well."

What is driving the gaps?

The MTA's most recent Financial Plan shows balance in 2026, but outyear gaps have widened despite stronger than expected tax revenues and progress on savings initiatives. The comptroller attributes the deterioration to rising non-discretionary costs — healthcare, pensions and benefits, energy, debt service and paratransit — that surface as unanticipated expenses compared with earlier plans.

The numbers show the mechanism. Operating expenses are projected to grow 3.4% annually across the 2027–2030 Financial Plans, while non-discretionary costs grow 5% a year from 2026 to 2030, by which point they will account for more than half of all operating costs. Revenues, by contrast, are expected to rise only 2.1% annually from 2027 to 2030, a figure that already assumes fare and toll increases in 2027 and 2029 that have not yet been approved.

Labor and headcount pressure

The MTA has not reached a new agreement with the Transport Workers Union since the contract expired in May 2026. Since early 2026, the agency has lost more than 1,000 operations and maintenance workers, and the report flags continuing increases in overtime costs as a concern.

DiNapoli notes that several budget pressures sit within management's control. Proactive monitoring of revenue collections, expanded cost savings efforts and a negotiated labor settlement, the report argues, would give clarity on how the MTA maintains balance in the years ahead.

Risks the MTA cannot control

The report also lists exposures outside the agency's direct influence:

• Federal decisions on transportation capital funding
• Federal actions affecting the cost of fuel and tariff-impacted goods
• Delays to two anticipated casinos expected to open in 2030, which could cost the MTA $160 million of the $300 million it expects from casino gaming taxes that year

Ridership recovery remains uneven

The MTA assumes systemwide ridership will reach 74% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2026, with sharp differences between divisions. Subway ridership is expected to reach 78% of 2019 levels this year; buses only 60%. The Long Island Rail Road, the strongest performer, is projected at 97%, and Metro-North Railroad at 87%.

The farebox picture has shifted structurally. Before the pandemic, tolls and fares covered more than 50% of the operating budget; in 2025 that share is 34%, reflecting greater dependence on taxes and subsidies. For 2027, the MTA projects 38% of revenue from fares (26%) and tolls (12%).

Fare evasion and the savings program

Fare evasion is the report's most striking operating figure. The MTA estimates 49% of bus riders did not pay in the second quarter of 2026, up from 45% in the same period last year, and paid-ridership recovery has stalled most notably on buses. The comptroller estimates a 10-percentage point drop in evasion in 2026 would have generated up to $150 million in additional bus fare revenue. New anti-evasion efforts, the report says, should be monitored for effectiveness.

The savings program (annual targets the MTA has set since 2023 to balance the budget without cutting service) delivered $396 million in savings in 2025. The agency has set a target of $750 million in cumulative savings by 2029, and the comptroller recommends making greater use of the program.

The annual report also examined the MTA's Customer Satisfaction Surveys, the status of its Capital Program and the authority's outstanding debt burden. Its central conclusion points forward: without deeper control of non-discretionary costs, sustained ridership growth and a settled labor contract, the 2027–2030 gaps will define the MTA's next financial plan.